Monday 18 January 2016

NYMEX crude down as China industrial output misses mark, FY GDP 6.8%

Crude prices fell in China as industrial production came in a tad weaker than expected, though full-year GDP met its forecast.Crude oil for delivery in March on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 0.74% to $30.16 a barrel.In China fourth quarter GDP rose 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, a tad lower than the 1.7% gain seen, while year-on-year GDP came in at the expected 6.8% rate.As well, the Middle Kingdom reported industrial production rose 5.9%, a tad lower than the 6.0% seen and retail sales gained 11.1%, a bit lower than up 11.3% expected for December. Then fixed asset investment rose 10%, a tad off the 10.2% gain seen.Overnight, Brent oil futures turned higher after falling below the $28-level on Monday, as international sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program were lifted over the weekend, opening the door to a wave of new oil and adding to concerns that a global glut will linger. 

Trading was thin because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in the U.S.Analysts say the country could quickly ramp up exports by around 500,000 barrels. The surge in Iranian shipments is viewed as bearish for crude, which has fallen approximately 75% from its peak of $115 two summers ago, amid a glut of oversupply on markets worldwide.Global crude production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil and after a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production in order to defend market share.Most market analysts expect a global glut to worsen in the coming months due to soaring production in North America, Saudi Arabia and Russia.Brent oil for March delivery sank to a session low of $27.67 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, a level not seen since October 2003.London-traded Brent futures plunged $4.40, or 13.74%, last week, its sixth losing week in the past seven. Brent prices are down almost 25% since the start of the year, as lingering concerns over China’s economic outlook added to the view that a global supply glut may stick around for much longer than anticipated.China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

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