Monday, 4 January 2016

Gold spikes 1% as Saudi Arabia-Iran tensions flare up

Gold prices spiked higher on Monday, amid mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran over the weekend.The move followed a weekend storming of the Saudi embassy in Tehran in response to the kingdom's execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $11.50, or 1.08%, to trade at $1,071.70 a troy ounce during European morning hours. It earlier rose by as much as 1.2%.Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery inched up 16.2 cents, or 1.17%, to trade at $13.96 a troy ounce.Meanwhile, investors were looking ahead to the ISM report on U.S. manufacturing activity later in the day for further clues on the strength of the economy and the timing of future rate hikes.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.5% at 98.28, as risk-off trade boosted demand for the safe-haven yen.Gold lost approximately 11% in 2015, the third yearly loss in a row, as speculation over the timing of a Fed rate hike dominated market sentiment for most of the year. Rising interest rates historically have been bad news for gold, which can't compete with the higher interest rates offered by other assets.With the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 out of the way, investors are now focusing on the pace of future rate increases. The Fed, from its forecasts, is anticipating four rate hikes next year.Elsewhere in metals trading, copper tumbled on Monday, as the release of weak Chinese manufacturing activity data weighed as investors returned to the markets after the long New Year weekend.Copper traders view Chinese factory activity as an indicator of the nation's copper demand, as the red metal is widely used by the sector.The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for December released earlier slipped to 48.2 from 48.6 in November, contracting for a tenth month and coming in below expectations for 49.0.Meanwhile, the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index published on Friday inched up to 49.7 last month from November's three-year low of 49.6. A reading below 50.0 indicates industry contraction.The downbeat data underlined worries the world's second largest economy may still be losing momentum despite a raft of stimulus measures in recent months.The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 45% of world consumption.

U.K. manufacturing PMI falls to 51.9 in December

Manufacturing activity in the U.K. expanded at the slowest rate in three months in December, dampening optimism over the country’s economic outlook and dimming the case for higher interest rates, industry data showed on Monday.In a report, market research group Markit said that its U.K. manufacturing PMI fell to a seasonally adjusted 51.9 last month from a revised reading of 52.5 in November. Analysts had expected the index to inch up to 52.7 in December.On the index, a reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.The consumer goods sector remained the prime driver of production and new order growth, despite seeing its rates of expansion ease over the month. Similar decelerations were also seen at intermediate and investment goods producers.Commenting on the report, Rob Dobson, senior economist at survey compiler Markit, said, “This suggests that industry will make, at best, only a marginal positive contribution to broader economic growth in the final quarter of the year."GBP/USD was trading at 1.4765 from around 1.4779 ahead of the release of the data, while EUR/GBP was at 0.7394 from 0.7387 earlier.Meanwhile, European stock markets were down sharply. London’s FTSE 100 dropped 1.75%, the EURO STOXX 50 declined 2.95%, France's CAC 40 slumped 2.6%, while Germany's DAX sank 3.2%.